predictions
I almost just wrote this down and taped it to my fridge, but anyone can say they predicted something, what I want is proof, later, that I’m as big an idiot as I claim to be after a few drinks.
So I’ve been playing around with CNN’s electoral vote calculator, spurred on by this post detailing the states McCain thinks they’ve lost vs. the states they think are still worth fighting in.
Offered a chance to respond to the suggestion that the McCain campaign is awash in defeatism, a McCain official delivered a decidedly measured appraisal: “We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good, and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It’s a long shot, but it’s worth fighting for.”
So here’s how I think it will break down, conservatively speaking, for Obama on Nov 4:
CA 55 – My people, nice work!
CO 9 – McCain’s guy says they’re “in trouble” in Colorado. I say the kids in Boulder will make this happen. Go hippies!
CT 7 – Where the New York elite have their weekend homes. Rich people that still care about other humans.
DC 3 – The people who work and live in Washington seem to know who they’d rather have running the place.
DE 3 – Well, duh. They like Biden.
HI 4 – This grandmother trip has to be helping. Freepers probably think it’s a staged campaign stunt.
IA 7 – McCain has straight up conceded Iowa. Weird, I know.
IL 21 – Easy to win with all the dead voters, I hear.
MA 12 – Bluest state in the country, God bless ‘em.
MD 10 – Basically still DC. See above.
ME 4 – So far north I think it’s illegal for them to lean right.
MI 17 – Not sure, but everybody’s called it for Obama.
MN 10 – Between Garrison Keillor and Canada, they’ve got a lot of positive reinforcement for their leftward views.
NH 4 – Leans left, but fairly solidly by current standards, and while Obama is trending down, it’s not a very steep line. Maybe if the election were held after Christmas, McCain could have a shot.
NJ 15 – Tony Soprano is a Democrat.
NM 5 – Again, McCain has given up on New Mexico.
NV 5 – They only admit to being in trouble in Nevada, at this point they’ll need to do better.
NY 31 – I moved here for a reason.
OH 20 – They seem to have given up on this one too, though it will be tight. I think Barry’s got it.
OR 7 – As long as they stop hugging trees and sipping coffee long enough to vote.
PA 21 – McCain’s anonymous staffer says they think they can take Pennsylvania. I disagree.
RI 4 – Is there a color bluer than blue?
VA 13 – Real America my ass.
VT 3 – It’s a well-known fact that Burton employees all vote Dem.
WA 11 – Not even a possibility that McCain will win here.
WI 10 – I’m surprised, given that everyone I know from Wisconsin is a Fox-breathing wingnut, but polling never lies, so there you go.
Now, notice that I didn’t give him Florida. I think McCain will take the land of giant bugs and voter disenfranchisement, but I’m happy to be wrong, and at any rate, there’s just no chance he gets Ohio AND Florida, so 27 or 20, but not both (47, you simpletons). Even without FL’s 27 (!) votes, Obama still gets 311 by my count, which makes me giggle with joy. I’ll happily/despondently compare my list to what happens in 10 days, but for now let’s just try and make this happen.
Oh, and by the way, even if Obama loses Missouri, Florida, AND Ohio, he still wins in my scenario, which is crazy to me, but oh well. Not cocky, just excited…